Taking a swing at projecting the Blue Jackets lineup
It’s July, the NHL draft and the free agency frenzy are over, and the Blue Jackets haven’t made a ton of changes to their lineup. Sure, a couple of players have been brought in, and a handful of others have left the organization. But by and large, new general manager Don Waddell hasn’t totally shaken things up as he prepares for his first season leading the Blue Jackets. This approach makes sense. Waddell praised the organization’s highly-rated prospect pool when he was hired in May. While there are several veteran leaders on the team – and two more have been added through free agency in center Sean Monahan and defenseman Jack Johnson – the Blue Jackets are at a point where the maturation of their young players will determine the organization’s long-term success.
Bringing in too many new pieces would likely be counterproductive, potentially blocking the development of the young players on the roster instead of leading to a significant improvement in the win-loss record. The upcoming season will be about seeing how young players like Kirill Marchenko, Yegor Chinakhov, Adam Fantilli, Dmitri Voronkov, Kent Johnson, David Jiricek, and Denton Mateychuk continue to develop after a season where many showcased their talents. While Waddell has added a few players, the bigger story of the offseason has been departures. Alexandre Texier was traded, Adam Boqvist was bought out, and players like Alex Nylander, Jake Bean, and Nick Blankenburg left via free agency.
The result is that the Blue Jackets have narrowed their focus, concentrating on the players they believe are the future of the organization. This makes the task of predicting the opening night lineup a little easier than in previous years. This is something we do each July after the initial days of free agency, but there’s a caveat we need to acknowledge: Patrik Laine’s trade request. While the talented winger remains a Blue Jacket, Waddell has stated he’s helping Laine find a new home. This means there could be another domino to fall when it comes to the lineup depending on the potential trade return. So, for now, we’ll leave Laine out of our projected lineup.
Let’s give it a try and project what the Blue Jackets might look like on October 10th in Minnesota. Take it all with a grain of salt, but here’s our first guess at the opening night lineup for the upcoming season.
Forwards
When Monahan signed with the Blue Jackets, Waddell essentially confirmed he would likely slot in as the team’s No. 1 center. This would allow him to rekindle his connection with Johnny Gaudreau, a consistent linemate from 2014-15 through 2020-21 with Calgary. The two played over 5,500 minutes together at 5-on-5 during that seven-season stretch, outscoring teams 271-226 in that time, according to Natural Stat Trick. The bigger question is who makes the most sense to put on the wing opposite Gaudreau. For this exercise, we’ll start with Chinakhov. He was on pace for nearly 30 goals last season while dealing with injuries, and his speed and explosiveness would complement the more veteran pairing. He’s also an elite finisher who would seem to work well with two players known for their playmaking skills.
The middle six offers some intriguing combinations. Starting down the middle, it seems most likely that Fantilli will hold down the No. 2 center spot in his second season. Waddell acknowledged on July 1st that the signing of Monahan could allow the Blue Jackets to move Jenner back to the wing, where his high-energy, hard-forechecking style has worked well in the past. Jenner could still play down the middle quite a bit, but for now, we’ll list Sillinger as the No. 3 center after a strong finish to the 2023-24 season. We considered having Johnson and Marchenko flanking Fantilli, which would put three young, skilled players together, while putting Jenner and Voronkov on either side of Sillinger. This would be a tough line to play against, but in the end, we thought it might make more sense to split things up a bit.
If Jenner does move to the wing, putting him with Fantilli would make sense. He could be an on-ice mentor and also someone who could help in the faceoff dot. Jenner would also play well with Marchenko, as he can either serve as a netfront presence for his shots or clean up rebounds given Kirill’s proclivity for shooting the puck. Johnson and Sillinger also seem like a duo who could have some chemistry together, and the presence of Voronkov might open up some ice for those two youngsters. It’s still a relatively young third line, but one that could mesh well if given the opportunity.
In the end, though, there are probably a few combinations that might make sense, and several different lines will likely be tried in the early going to see who works well together. The fourth line is probably the easiest to put together, as Danforth, Kuraly, and Olivier have been a successful trio before. The three played 127 minutes together at 5-on-5 last season, according to MoneyPuck, and the Blue Jackets had a 52.7 percent expected goal share in that time. There’s a lot to like about a line that would be hard to play against but also have some offensive upside.
Picking a starting 12 was a bit easier this year than in past years, as the Blue Jackets have 12 players who stand out as having been regulars in past seasons. Of the group pushing for playing time, it will be most interesting to see Brindley at the start, as we know the second-round pick has NHL skills. At the same time, he’ll also have just turned 20 at the beginning of the season, so he seems likely to begin the year getting pro experience in Cleveland. There are some good prospects in this group, but all of them would likely benefit from more time at the AHL level.
Gambrell, a 27-year-old center signed in free agency, has 233 NHL games under his belt and could step in if needed. The team’s first-round pick, Lindstrom could make an impact, but it seems more likely given the center depth that he’ll continue to develop at the junior level.
Defensemen
The biggest question remaining with the Blue Jackets defensive corps is who gets to play on the top pair with Werenski, a two-time All-Star coming off a career-best season on the offensive end. He’s one of the best blueliners in the league and commands 25 minutes per night, but the Jackets are still looking for the right person to skate alongside him on the right side.
Last season, according to MoneyPuck, Severson got the most time with Werenski, playing 456 minutes at 5-on-5, with the departed Boqvist next (333 minutes), then Gudbranson (233), with Jiricek skating only 43 minutes with the top CBJ defenseman. In a perfect world, Jiricek makes the most sense there, but he’ll still be just 20 years old on opening night. While he’s not lacking for talent, he’s still gaining experience. He is coming off a really good playoff run with Cleveland, though, and we’ll put him there to start just because his style complements Werenski the best.
Provorov and Severson also seem like a natural pairing, and according to MoneyPuck, the Blue Jackets had 52 percent of the expected goals with the duo together on the ice last season. Severson could easily move up and play with Werenski, but my gut tells me keeping this pairing together in the second slot could provide stability while also giving Jiricek a shot up top.
Then there’s the third pairing, where we’ll start with a pair of big, defensive-minded veterans in Johnson and Gudbranson. It’s another duo that seems to make sense, as they can take a fair number of defensive zone faceoffs and provide some consistency there given their combined 31 years of NHL experience. Johnson is also an accomplished penalty killer who was solid in his own zone last season.
I put Johnson in the third spot on the left side to start, but it wouldn’t be a huge shock to see either Christiansen or Mateychuk earn their way into the lineup. Johnson was signed as veteran cover who can also be a leader on the back end, but if either of those youngsters is ready, they’ll earn plenty of playing time. Christiansen will be 25 on opening night and has proved all he needs to in the AHL, where he’s been an All-Star and one of the league’s highest-scoring defensemen the past few years. There are many in the CBJ organization who believe he could be ready to hold down a regular role in the NHL.
Mateychuk is coming off a dominant season at the junior level and might not need much seasoning, but my guess is the 20-year-old at least starts the season gaining pro experience in the AHL. It wouldn’t surprise me if it doesn’t take long for him to earn an NHL gig, though.
Goaltenders
Waddell has been adamant since his arrival that he wants to work with Merzlikins, who has an .889 save percentage over the past two seasons and retains three seasons left on his contract. Merzlikins has played good hockey at times over the past few years, but consistency has been the biggest issue. Can the changes around the team help him get back to the level that made him a top-five finisher in the Vezina Trophy voting in 2019-20?
With Tarasov, there are two big questions. The first is if he can stay healthy after a few injury-plagued seasons, and the second is if the way he played at the end of the season – posting a .933 save percentage in his last 13 appearances – is the standard he can reach consistently. A highly touted prospect coming up the ranks, he’s 25 now, and Tarasov has the potential to be a No. 1 if he can get into a groove similar to the end of last season.
There’s certainly potential in this group, but there’s also something to prove for each of the goalies at the top of the depth chart. Motivation shouldn’t be in short supply. Greaves’ excellent season at both the AHL and NHL levels this past season showed he’s on the path to being a full-time NHLer, but there’s nothing wrong with him serving as the No. 3 goalie in the organization this coming season and continuing to work on his game. After all, the list of 23-year-old netminders who have NHL success isn’t particularly long. Right now, it appears that if everyone is healthy, he’ll form a duo with the veteran Sawchenko – signed from Vancouver this offseason – while 21-year-old Cleveland signee Pavel Cajan will also continue to gain experience in the wings.
- New general manager Don Waddell is focusing on the development of young players in the Blue Jackets organization.
- The team has seen departures like Alexandre Texier, Adam Boqvist, Alex Nylander, Jake Bean, and Nick Blankenburg, narrowing their focus on future prospects.
- Patrik Laine’s trade request adds uncertainty to the projected lineup for the upcoming season.
- The Blue Jackets are prioritizing the maturation of players like Kirill Marchenko, Yegor Chinakhov, and others to drive long-term success.
