College Football Top 25: A Model’s Rankings and Projected Win Totals for 2024
The air is crisp, the leaves are turning, and the smell of freshly mown grass fills the air. It can only mean one thing – college football is just around the corner! As fall camps gear up, the buzz surrounding the upcoming season reaches a fever pitch. With the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff, more teams than ever before have a shot at a national championship. But who will rise to the top?
This year, we’re going to dive deep into the world of college football predictions with a model that uses play-by-play data, returning production, recruiting rankings, and transfers to provide a comprehensive look at the 2024 season. This isn’t just about who’s likely to win the national championship, but a power ranking that considers every aspect of each team’s potential.
We’ve run simulations for every game 100,000 times to generate projected win totals and conference title odds for every team. Buckle up, because the race for the championship is about to heat up!
The Power 2?
The Big Ten and SEC dominate the top of the rankings, claiming 12 of the top 13 spots. Notre Dame stands as the lone wolf among the elite, followed by a trio of Utah, Kansas State, and Florida State, giving the Big 12 and ACC some representation in the top 25.
The Big Ten and SEC have been the powerhouses of college football for a while now, and this season is no different. These conferences boast a combination of experienced quarterbacks, dominant defenses, and consistently strong recruiting classes. The SEC, in particular, is known for its physical and high-scoring style of play, which makes it a tough conference to navigate.
Notre Dame’s presence in the top 10 is a testament to their consistent success and national recognition. While they’re not part of a Power Five conference, the Fighting Irish have a strong history of competing with the best teams in the country.
It’s exciting to see the Big 12 and ACC represented in the top 25. The Big 12 has always been known for its high-powered offenses, and teams like Utah and Kansas State are poised to make a significant impact. The ACC, on the other hand, has a few strong programs that are capable of challenging for conference titles and national recognition.
Runner-Up Dropoff Again
For the second year in a row, the national title game runner-up is absent from the top 25. Washington, last year’s runner-up, finds itself at 41st in the rankings. Last year, TCU, who fell short in the championship game, was ranked 26th before having a disappointing 5-7 season.
This trend highlights the unpredictable nature of college football. While a team may perform exceptionally well in one season, various factors can affect their performance the following year. Transfers, injuries, and coaching changes can all contribute to a team’s decline. In the case of Washington, they lost a number of key players from last year’s team, which could explain their drop in the rankings.
This also reinforces the idea that college football is a constant battle for supremacy. Teams are always striving to improve, and the competition is fierce. A team that reaches the championship game one year may not even be in the top 25 the following year. This makes college football so exciting and unpredictable, as any team can have a breakout season.
Top 25 Teams by Conference
The conference breakdown of the top 25 provides further insight into the power dynamics of college football:
- SEC: 9
- Big Ten: 5
- Big 12: 5
- ACC: 5
- Independent: 1
The SEC’s dominance is undeniable, with nearly a third of the top 25 teams hailing from the conference. The Big Ten, Big 12, and ACC are all well-represented, showcasing the depth and talent across these conferences. Notre Dame, as the sole independent team in the top 25, proves that a strong program doesn’t need to be part of a Power Five conference to compete at the highest level.
A Big Three and the Rest
The model indicates a noticeable gap between No. 3 Oregon and No. 4 Texas. Georgia and Ohio State, both perennial powerhouses, are expected to be at the forefront of the national championship race. But it’s Oregon’s ascent to the top three that’s particularly intriguing.
Oregon’s move to the Big Ten raises questions about their ability to maintain their success. Cross-country travel and a more competitive conference could pose challenges. However, Dan Lanning’s squad boasts talent across the board and was one of the best teams in the country last season. Replacing Bo Nix might seem daunting, but the acquisition of Heisman Trophy-favorite Dillon Gabriel in the transfer portal should keep Oregon’s offense among the most potent in college football.
Oregon’s transition to the Big Ten will be a fascinating storyline to follow. Will they be able to adapt to the new conference and maintain their level of play? Or will the increased competition and travel prove to be too much to overcome? Only time will tell.
Alabama is Still Top Five After Nick Saban
Nick Saban is widely considered the greatest coach in college football history. His reign at Alabama has been legendary, marked by a string of national championships and dominant seasons. Naturally, some might expect a decline following his departure. But the model suggests otherwise.
Kalen DeBoer, who arrives from Washington, is a highly respected coach with a proven track record of success. He’s compiled a 104-12 record as a head coach and is known for his offensive prowess. While this will be his toughest job yet, he has the potential to keep Alabama at the top of the SEC. Can he match Saban’s level of success? It’s unlikely, but it’s unfair to hold any coach to the standard set by the greatest of all time. Alabama will be just fine with DeBoer at the helm.
DeBoer’s arrival at Alabama marks a new chapter for the program. Can he continue the tradition of excellence that Saban established? Or will he face challenges adapting to the pressure and expectations of leading the Crimson Tide? This will be a storyline to watch closely throughout the season.
Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss Ready to Arrive?
Ole Miss, under Lane Kiffin, is poised for a breakout season. Kiffin has had a rollercoaster coaching career, but he’s coming off arguably his best season, and the Rebels might possess more talent than ever before. But can Kiffin and Ole Miss compete with the elite teams? That remains to be seen. However, a favorable schedule could propel Ole Miss into the College Football Playoff conversation throughout the season.
Kiffin’s offensive system is known for its high-scoring and dynamic nature. He has a knack for attracting talented players and maximizing their potential. This season, Ole Miss has a number of key players returning, along with some exciting newcomers. If they can stay healthy and play to their potential, Ole Miss could be a dark horse contender in the SEC.
Ole Miss’s success this season will depend on their ability to compete against the top teams in the SEC. They have the talent to make a run for the conference title, but they’ll need to prove themselves against the likes of Georgia, Alabama, and LSU. If they can do that, they’ll be a force to be reckoned with.
Team Capsules
Now, let’s delve into the detailed capsules for each of the top 25 teams:
1. Georgia
- 2024 Projected Wins: 10.4
- Conference Title Odds: 38.1%
- Last Year’s Record: 13-1
The reigning national champions are once again the favorites to win it all. Georgia’s defense is always a force to be reckoned with, and they have a talented offense led by quarterback Carson Beck. The Bulldogs are the team to beat in the SEC and will be a formidable opponent throughout the season.
2. Ohio State
- 2024 Projected Wins: 10.5
- Conference Title Odds: 40%
- Last Year’s Record: 11-2
Ohio State is a perennial powerhouse in the Big Ten, and they’re always in the mix for a national championship. They have a dynamic offense led by quarterback Kyle McCord and a strong defense that should be even better this season. The Buckeyes are a legitimate threat to win it all.
3. Oregon
- 2024 Projected Wins: 10.1
- Conference Title Odds: 31.6%
- Last Year’s Record: 12-2
Oregon’s move to the Big Ten is a big one, but they’re still a top-tier program. With Dillon Gabriel at quarterback, they have one of the most potent offenses in the country. The Ducks will be a tough out in the Big Ten, but they’ll need to prove they can handle the rigors of the conference.
4. Texas
- 2024 Projected Wins: 9.7
- Conference Title Odds: 24.1%
- Last Year’s Record: 12-2
Texas is a program on the rise, and they’re poised for a big season. They have a talented roster, a dynamic offense, and a strong defense. The Longhorns are a legitimate threat to win the Big 12 and make the College Football Playoff.
5. Alabama
- 2024 Projected Wins: 8.9
- Conference Title Odds: 7.3%
- Last Year’s Record: 12-2
Alabama is still a powerhouse under new coach Kalen DeBoer. They have a talented roster and a strong defense. The Crimson Tide will be a tough out in the SEC, but they’ll need to prove they can win without Nick Saban at the helm.
6. LSU
- 2024 Projected Wins: 9
- Conference Title Odds: 8.1%
- Last Year’s Record: 10-3
LSU is a program with a rich history, and they’re back in contention for a national championship. They have a strong defense, a talented quarterback in Jayden Daniels, and a high-powered offense. The Tigers will be a tough out in the SEC.
7. Ole Miss
- 2024 Projected Wins: 9.1
- Conference Title Odds: 7%
- Last Year’s Record: 11-2
Ole Miss is a program on the rise, and they’re poised for a big season. They have a talented roster, a dynamic offense, and a strong defense. The Rebels are a legitimate threat to win the SEC and make the College Football Playoff.
8. Penn State
- 2024 Projected Wins: 9.5
- Conference Title Odds: 13.2%
- Last Year’s Record: 10-3
Penn State is a perennial contender in the Big Ten, and they’re always a tough out. They have a strong defense, a talented quarterback in Drew Allar, and a balanced offense. The Nittany Lions are a legitimate threat to win the Big Ten and make the College Football Playoff.
9. Notre Dame
- 2024 Projected Wins: 9.4
- Last Year’s Record: 10-3
Notre Dame is always a tough opponent, and they’re one of the most respected programs in the country. They have a strong defense, a talented quarterback in Sam Hartman, and a balanced offense. The Fighting Irish are a legitimate threat to win the ACC and make the College Football Playoff.
10. Texas A&M
- 2024 Projected Wins: 8.7
- Conference Title Odds: 5.9%
- Last Year’s Record: 7-6
Texas A&M is a program with a lot of potential, and they’re looking to bounce back from a disappointing season. They have a talented roster, a strong defense, and a high-powered offense. The Aggies are a legitimate threat to win the SEC.
11. Missouri
- 2024 Projected Wins: 9.1
- Conference Title Odds: 4.9%
- Last Year’s Record: 11-2
Missouri is a program on the rise, and they’re looking to make a statement in the SEC. They have a talented roster, a strong defense, and a high-powered offense. The Tigers are a legitimate threat to win the SEC.
12. Michigan
- 2024 Projected Wins: 8.9
- Conference Title Odds: 10.7%
- Last Year’s Record: 15-0
Michigan is the defending national champion, and they’re looking to repeat. They have a strong defense, a talented quarterback in J.J. McCarthy, and a balanced offense. The Wolverines are a legitimate threat to win the Big Ten and make the College Football Playoff.
13. Oklahoma
- 2024 Projected Wins: 7.9
- Conference Title Odds: 1.6%
- Last Year’s Record: 10-3
Oklahoma is a program with a rich history, and they’re always a tough out. They have a talented roster, a strong defense, and a high-powered offense. The Sooners will be a tough out in the Big 12.
14. Utah
- 2024 Projected Wins: 9.2
- Conference Title Odds: 32.6%
- Last Year’s Record: 8-5
Utah is a program on the rise, and they’re looking to make a statement in the Pac-12. They have a talented roster, a strong defense, and a high-powered offense. The Utes will be a tough out in the Pac-12.
15. Kansas State
- 2024 Projected Wins: 9.2
- Conference Title Odds: 30.9%
- Last Year’s Record: 9-4
Kansas State is a program with a lot of potential, and they’re looking to make a statement in the Big 12. They have a talented roster, a strong defense, and a high-powered offense. The Wildcats will be a tough out in the Big 12.
16. Florida State
- 2024 Projected Wins: 8.9
- Conference Title Odds: 26.5%
- Last Year’s Record: 13-1
Florida State is a program on the rise, and they’re looking to make a statement in the ACC. They have a talented roster, a strong defense, and a high-powered offense. The Seminoles will be a tough out in the ACC.
17. Tennessee
- 2024 Projected Wins: 8.3
- Conference Title Odds: 2.5%
- Last Year’s Record: 9-4
Tennessee is a program with a lot of potential, and they’re looking to make a statement in the SEC. They have a talented roster, a strong defense, and a high-powered offense. The Volunteers will be a tough out in the SEC.
18. Oklahoma State
- 2024 Projected Wins: 8.6
- Conference Title Odds: 9%
- Last Year’s Record: 10-4
Oklahoma State is a program with a rich history, and they’re always a tough out. They have a talented roster, a strong defense, and a high-powered offense. The Cowboys will be a tough out in the Big 12.
19. Clemson
- 2024 Projected Wins: 8.2
- Conference Title Odds: 17.1%
- Last Year’s Record: 9-4
Clemson is a program with a rich history, and they’re always a tough out. They have a talented roster, a strong defense, and a high-powered offense. The Tigers will be a tough out in the ACC.
20. USC
- 2024 Projected Wins: 6.9
- Conference Title Odds: 1.6%
- Last Year’s Record: 8-5
USC is a program with a rich history, and they’re always a tough out. They have a talented roster, a strong defense, and a high-powered offense. The Trojans will be a tough out in the Pac-12.
21. Arizona
- 2024 Projected Wins: 7.9
- Conference Title Odds: 8.8%
- Last Year’s Record: 10-3
Arizona is a program on the rise, and they’re looking to make a statement in the Pac-12. They have a talented roster, a strong defense, and a high-powered offense. The Wildcats will be a tough out in the Pac-12.
22. Miami
- 2024 Projected Wins: 8.5
- Conference Title Odds: 10.9%
- Last Year’s Record: 7-6
Miami is a program with a rich history, and they’re looking to return to national prominence. They have a talented roster, a strong defense, and a high-powered offense. The Hurricanes will be a tough out in the ACC.
23. Kansas
- 2024 Projected Wins: 7.7
- Conference Title Odds: 3.3%
- Last Year’s Record: 9-4
Kansas is a program on the rise, and they’re looking to make a statement in the Big 12. They have a talented roster, a strong defense, and a high-powered offense. The Jayhawks will be a tough out in the Big 12.
24. Virginia Tech
- 2024 Projected Wins: 8.5
- Conference Title Odds: 10.6%
- Last Year’s Record: 7-6
Virginia Tech is a program with a lot of potential, and they’re looking to make a statement in the ACC. They have a talented roster, a strong defense, and a high-powered offense. The Hokies will be a tough out in the ACC.
25. Louisville
- 2024 Projected Wins: 7.9
- Conference Title Odds: 11.8%
- Last Year’s Record: 10-4
Louisville is a program with a lot of potential, and they’re looking to make a statement in the ACC. They have a talented roster, a strong defense, and a high-powered offense. The Cardinals will be a tough out in the ACC.
The college football season is full of surprises, and this year is no exception. This model provides a starting point for understanding the landscape of the upcoming season, but it’s important to remember that anything can happen. As the season unfolds, keep an eye out for upsets, breakout performances, and the emergence of new contenders. Get ready for a thrilling ride, filled with incredible games, dramatic finishes, and a whole lot of passion!
- The model’s rankings and projected win totals for the 2024 college football season are based on play-by-play data, returning production, recruiting rankings, and transfers.
- The Big Ten and SEC dominate the top of the rankings, with 12 of the top 13 spots occupied by teams from these conferences.
- Notre Dame stands out as the only non-Big Ten or SEC team in the elite group in the top 10, showcasing their consistent success and national recognition.
- The Big 12 and ACC also have representation in the top 25, with teams like Utah, Kansas State, and Florida State making an impact.
- The SEC is known for its physical and high-scoring style of play, making it a challenging conference to compete in.
- With an expanded 12-team College Football Playoff format, more teams have a shot at the national championship, adding excitement to the upcoming season.
