College football rankings: Phil Steele predicts AP preseason poll
Predicting the preseason college football rankings is something Phil Steele is pretty good at: of the 150 teams in those top 10 polls over the last 15 years, Steele correctly picked 143 of them, a success rate of 95.3 percent. If he says it, you can book it.
More: Phil Steele’s 10 surprise college football teams in 2024
Now, the preseason magazine extraordinaire, who has already announced his own Top 40 poll, has revealed his picks for how AP top 25 voters will slot the 10 best teams in college football looking ahead to the 2024 preseason rankings.
- Phil Steele has a remarkable track record of predicting preseason college football rankings, with a success rate of 95.3% in the past 15 years.
- Missouri, coming off an impressive 11-win season, is expected to make a significant move towards the expanded playoff due to returning offensive talent and a more favorable schedule.
- However, Missouri faces the challenge of replacing key defensive contributors, which could impact their progress in the upcoming season.
- Ole Miss, led by Lane Kiffin, is poised for a potential breakthrough season with a more favorable schedule, key offensive players returning, and an elite transfer class.
- The expanded playoff format adds excitement and provides teams like Ole Miss with a realistic chance to contend for a national title.
College Football Rankings: Phil Steele Predicts AP Preseason Poll
10. Missouri
Missouri is coming off an impressive 11-win season and appears poised to capitalize on an easier schedule and returning offensive talent to make a significant move towards the expanded playoff. However, the Tigers face the challenge of replacing key defensive contributors, which could potentially hinder their progress.
The Tigers’ success will hinge on how effectively they can fill the void left by departing defensive players. If they can maintain a strong defensive presence, Missouri has the potential to be a formidable force in the SEC.
Missouri’s offensive firepower, led by returning players, should be a potent weapon. They’ll need to maintain that offensive prowess while finding a way to solidify their defense to achieve their goal of reaching the expanded playoff.
Missouri’s last ranking: No. 8
9. Ole Miss
This could be the year Lane Kiffin finally leads the Rebels to national prominence. A more favorable schedule, the return of key offensive players, and another elite transfer class have positioned Ole Miss for a potential breakthrough season. The expanded playoff format adds another layer of excitement, as Ole Miss now has a realistic chance to contend for a national title.
Kiffin has assembled a formidable roster with a combination of returning talent and high-profile transfers. The Rebels’ offense, known for its explosiveness, is primed to be even more dynamic. Their defense has also undergone significant improvements, making them a complete team capable of competing at the highest level.
The Rebels’ success will depend on their ability to maintain their offensive efficiency while continuing to develop their defense. If they can do that, Ole Miss has the potential to make a deep run in the playoffs and challenge for a national championship.
Ole Miss’ last ranking: No. 9
8. Penn State
James Franklin is still under pressure to prove he can consistently beat the Big Ten’s elite. While the conference’s expansion makes this task more challenging, it also opens up a more manageable path to the expanded playoff. Penn State has a solid foundation with key returning defensive players and their top two running backs, giving them a strong chance to compete for a conference title.
Franklin has built a program with a strong foundation, and the return of key defensive players and offensive playmakers gives them a solid base to build upon. Their ability to navigate a tougher Big Ten schedule and emerge as a top contender will depend on their consistency and ability to overcome key challenges.
Penn State’s offensive and defensive units are capable of producing explosive plays. However, they need to maintain consistency, particularly on defense, to avoid becoming predictable and vulnerable to opponents. The Nittany Lions’ ability to develop a dominant defense will be crucial to their playoff aspirations.
Penn State’s last ranking: No. 13
7. Michigan
The defending national champions enter the season with a new look, both on the sidelines and on the field. Head coach Sherrone Moore has a lot to prove as he takes over the program, but he inherits a talented roster, including lead rusher Donovan Edwards and defensive stars like Will Johnson. However, a more challenging schedule and lingering questions about certain positions create uncertainty for the Wolverines.
The Wolverines have a rich history of success, but their ability to repeat as national champions will depend on their ability to adapt to a new coaching regime and address key areas of concern. Moore’s experience as a former offensive coordinator and his ability to utilize the talent on the roster will be crucial to their success.
Michigan’s defense remains a formidable force, but their offensive consistency will be a key factor in determining their playoff fate. The Wolverines need to establish a reliable passing game and find ways to create more explosive plays to avoid becoming one-dimensional. The ability to develop a balanced offense will be crucial to their success.
Michigan’s last ranking: No. 1
6. Notre Dame
Notre Dame’s independent status limits their potential playoff ranking to no higher than No. 5. However, as head coach Marcus Freeman enters his third full year, the Irish have a clear path to the postseason. Their strong pass defense and incoming blue-chip transfers, including quarterback Riley Leonard and wide receiver Beaux Collins, provide a formidable foundation for a successful season.
Freeman’s experience as a defensive coordinator and his ability to recruit top talent have laid the groundwork for a successful program. The arrival of key transfers, particularly at quarterback and wide receiver, adds another dimension to their offense, which could make them a more potent offensive force.
Notre Dame’s defense is already a strength, and their offense has the potential to be explosive with the addition of Leonard and Collins. The Irish’s ability to consistently execute their offensive game plan and maintain their defensive intensity will be crucial to their playoff aspirations.
Notre Dame’s last ranking: No. 14
5. Alabama
Kalen DeBoer takes over the reins of one of the most prestigious programs in college football, replacing the legendary Nick Saban. While the challenge is immense, DeBoer inherits a roster loaded with Saban’s highly-touted recruits, even with notable losses. This talent pool provides a foundation for a 10-win season, and quarterback Jalen Milroe is back under center to lead what should be another high-flying DeBoer offense.
DeBoer’s experience as a successful offensive coordinator and his ability to adapt to the Alabama culture will be crucial to his success. He has a strong track record of developing quarterbacks and creating offensive schemes that maximize player potential. The talent he inherits will give him the tools to build a successful program.
Alabama’s offense will be a force to be reckoned with, but their defense needs to maintain its high standard to reach their full potential. The Crimson Tide’s ability to find a consistent pass rush and limit big plays will be crucial to their success.
Alabama’s last ranking: No. 5
4. Oregon
The Ducks are making a significant move to the Big Ten, but they are in a prime position to win their new conference. They boast college football’s top wide receiver corps, a veteran quarterback in Dillon Gabriel, and another strong defensive rotation. The Ducks have all the ingredients for a successful transition and a strong run in the Big Ten.
The Ducks’ offensive firepower is undeniable, but their ability to adapt to the Big Ten’s more physical style of play will be crucial to their success. They need to establish a dominant running game and a strong offensive line to withstand the rigors of the conference.
Oregon’s defense has been a strength for many years, and they have the talent to continue that tradition. They need to maintain their defensive intensity and find ways to create turnovers to make a significant impact in the Big Ten.
Oregon’s last ranking: No. 6
3. Texas
Steve Sarkisian has the Longhorns poised for a successful transition to the SEC. Coming off a conference title and their first CFP appearance, Texas has a top-flight roster led by quarterback Quinn Ewers and blue-chip wide receiver transfers, all backed by a solid protection unit. These factors position them as a strong contender in the SEC from day one.
Sarkisian has made significant progress in building a strong program, and the Longhorns are in a great position to compete for a national title. Their offense has the potential to be one of the most explosive in the country, and their defense has shown signs of improvement.
Texas’ offense will be a major factor in their success, but their defense needs to continue its development. They need to consistently generate pressure and create turnovers to make a difference in the SEC.
Texas’ last ranking: No. 3
2. Ohio State
Ryan Day has reloaded his roster after a three-game losing streak to Michigan. He’s aggressively utilized the transfer portal to bring in key players, including safety Caleb Downs, tailback Quinshon Judkins, and quarterback Will Howard, to complement returning production on both sides of the ball. The addition of Chip Kelly as offensive coordinator further adds to the Buckeyes’ offensive firepower.
Day has proven his ability to develop quarterbacks and recruit top talent, and the addition of Kelly brings a new dimension to the Buckeyes’ offense. They have a roster filled with talent, and their ability to consistently execute their offensive game plan will be crucial to their success.
Ohio State’s offense will be a force to be reckoned with, but they need to improve their defense.
They need to find a way to consistently generate pressure and create turnovers to limit big plays. They need to improve their defensive consistency to reach their full potential.
Ohio State’s last ranking: No. 10
1. Georgia
Georgia is the likely No. 1 team in the preseason rankings and the current favorite to win the national title. They return a wealth of experience on both sides of the ball, including quarterback Carson Beck, but they face a challenging schedule, with road games against Alabama, Texas, and Ole Miss, and a season-opening encounter against Clemson. This demanding schedule will test their mettle and determine their destiny.
The Bulldogs have a strong foundation built on a dominant defense and a talented offense. Their ability to navigate a tough schedule will be a key factor in their success. The return of key players, including Beck, gives them a solid base to build upon, but they will need to find ways to maintain their high level of play against top competition.
Georgia’s defense is expected to remain a dominant force. However, their offense needs to find consistency and avoid becoming too reliant on their running game. They need to develop a more balanced offensive attack to make a deep run in the playoffs.
Georgia’s last ranking: No. 4
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