Group of 5 College Football Preview: Which Teams Have Best CFP Shot?
The 2024 college football season marks a historic year for fans of teams in the Group of Five (G5) conferences: Conference USA, American, Sun Belt, Mountain West, and MAC. For decades, even an undefeated season wasn’t enough for a G5 team to earn a berth in the College Football Playoff (CFP). The 2021 Cincinnati Bearcats were the only G5 team to break through and reach the CFP, but the landscape has changed. The new 12-team playoff format, starting in 2024, will automatically include the highest-ranked team among the five G5 conference champions. This opens the door for a G5 team to make the CFP, adding a new dimension of excitement to the season.
While Liberty, the heavy favorite in Conference USA, has the shortest odds to reach the expanded CFP, several other teams are considered contenders. These include three from the AAC, two from the Mountain West, and two from the Sun Belt. The MAC, however, is not expected to produce a CFP contender, with most sportsbooks listing preseason favorites Miami (Ohio) and Toledo at +2000 or longer odds. However, Caesars has both teams at +1200, suggesting there might be a glimmer of hope for the MAC.
- The 2024 college football season brings hope for G5 teams with the new 12-team playoff format including the highest-ranked G5 conference champion.
- Liberty is the frontrunner in Conference USA, but other strong contenders for a CFP spot include teams from AAC, Mountain West, and Sun Belt conferences.
- MAC teams like Miami (Ohio) and Toledo are considered long shots for a CFP berth, but Caesars gives them slightly better odds at +1200.
- Top G5 contenders for a CFP spot based on sportsbook odds include Liberty, Boise State, Memphis, Tulane, Appalachian State, UTSA, and Texas State.
CFP Odds for Top Group of Five Contenders
As of July 22, here are the odds for the eight G5 teams with the best chance at a CFP berth, according to various sportsbooks:
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty (C-USA) | +400 | +470 | unlisted | +210 |
| Boise State (Mt. West) | +400 | +490 | +500 | +400 |
| Memphis (AAC) | +700 | +550 | +600 | +650 |
| Tulane (AAC) | +1000 | +1100 | +1100 | +1200 |
| Appalachian State (Sun Belt) | +1000 | +1400 | +1400 | +1100 |
| UTSA (AAC) | +1200 | +1300 | +1300 | +1200 |
| Texas State (Sun Belt) | +1200 | +1600 | +1600 | +1300 |
| Fresno State (Mt. West) | +1500 | +2000 | unlisted | +1400 |
Based on these odds, the battle for the G5 spot in the 2024 CFP will likely come down to Liberty, Boise State, and Memphis. Liberty, with its favorable schedule, has the shortest odds among these three, but Boise State and Memphis also possess legitimate CFP aspirations.
Liberty — Best CFP Odds: +470 (FanDuel)
Liberty football has quickly become a force in the Group of Five since its inaugural season in 2018. Under former coach Hugh Freeze, the Flames won at least eight games in four consecutive seasons from 2019 to 2022. Now, under head coach Jamey Chadwell, Liberty is coming off an impressive 2023 campaign.
Last year, Liberty finished 13-1, with its only loss coming to Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl. The 2024 squad boasts stars at quarterback and running back in Kaidon Salter and Quinton Cooley, who are expected to light up opposing defenses just as they did last year, when Liberty averaged over 38 points per game.
The defense, however, is a question mark. After welcoming a number of transfers this offseason, the defense’s performance will likely determine whether Liberty simply reaches the CFP or actually challenges a top-10 opponent in a potential playoff matchup. The key game on their schedule is a non-conference trip to Sun Belt foe Appalachian State on September 28, which looks like their toughest test in the 2024 regular season.
Boise State — Best CFP Odds: +500 (BetMGM)
While the AAC favorite Memphis has garnered more attention, especially on the East Coast, it’s Boise State that boasts the next-shortest odds to make the CFP after Liberty. One of the most underrated players entering the season is Broncos running back Ashton Jeanty, who amassed 19 touchdowns (14 rushing, five receiving) and 1,916 yards from scrimmage (1,347 rushing, 569 receiving) in 2023. He was a major reason for Boise State’s impressive turnaround after a 3-4 start. They finished 8-6 (6-2 Mt. West), winning their league with a 44-20 victory over UNLV in the conference title game.
Boise State’s strong finish came after firing coach Andy Avalos in November, with the team at 5-5. Longtime Boise assistant Spencer Danielson took over as interim coach and led the Broncos to a 3-1 record, earning the full-time job a day after the MWC Championship win. A year after facing tough non-conference opponents like Washington, UCF, and Memphis, the Broncos have another challenging schedule outside the Mountain West in 2024. It includes an early-season trip to Oregon, plus home games against former Pac-12 teams Washington State and Oregon State.
With former USC quarterback Malachi Nelson leading an experienced roster coming off a strong finish under a then-interim coach, the Broncos appear to be a legitimate threat to challenge Liberty for the G5 CFP spot.
Memphis — Best CFP Odds: +700 (DraftKings)
Memphis, a potential dark horse contender to reach the CFP, is expected to be a formidable force in the AAC. Like Boise State, Memphis has an early opportunity to separate itself from the pack as they visit Florida State on September 14. An upset in Tallahassee by Memphis, coupled with a hypothetical Boise State win over Oregon, would deal a significant blow to Liberty’s playoff hopes.
Even if Memphis comes up short against the Seminoles, they could still make a compelling case for a higher end-of-season ranking than Liberty if things fall into place. If UTSA (9-4 in 2023) and/or Tulane (11-3 in ’23) live up to expectations and Memphis wins the AAC, including victories over those two, with their only loss coming on the road against Florida State, the Tigers could earn a CFP bid at Liberty’s expense, even if the Flames are undefeated. While this scenario involves multiple “ifs,” Memphis’ offensive firepower, featuring All-AAC-caliber players at quarterback (Seth Henigan), wide receiver (Roc Taylor and Demeer Blankumsee), and running back (Mario Anderson), makes it a realistic possibility for coach Ryan Silverfield and his team.
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About the Writer
Tyler Everett is a veteran sportswriter who transitioned to the world of sports betting in 2019. He is known for his insightful analysis and ability to break down complex topics in an accessible and engaging manner. His passion for sports and his expertise in sports betting make him a valuable resource for anyone looking to understand the intricacies of the industry.
