MLB Player Props: Best Bets for Wednesday (July 24)
Greetings, fellow baseball enthusiasts! It’s a beautiful day for some baseball action, and we’re diving right into the exciting world of MLB player props. Yesterday, we had a profitable day thanks to Tyler O’Neill’s home run prowess, and we’re hoping to keep the momentum going with our picks for Wednesday. So, grab your favorite beverage, settle in, and let’s break down some of the most enticing player props for today’s slate of games.
- Yordan Alvarez has been on fire at the plate, with an impressive hard-hit rate and exceptional power.
- Alvarez’s stats indicate he is due for a home run binge, making him a strong bet to hit one in the upcoming game.
- Despite facing a left-handed pitcher, Alvarez has shown solid performance against lefties this season, increasing his chances of success.
- The matchup against Athletics pitcher JP Sears presents a favorable opportunity for Alvarez to showcase his power and potentially hit a home run.
- Considering Alvarez’s hitting prowess and Sears’ struggles against hitters, betting on Yordan Alvarez to hit a home run could be a profitable choice.
Play 1: Yordan Alvarez to Hit a Home Run (+325) BetRivers
The Houston Astros are set to face off against the Oakland Athletics at 3:37 p.m. ET, and we’ve got our eyes on Yordan Alvarez. Alvarez has been on an absolute tear lately, and he’s showing no signs of slowing down. Since returning from the All-Star break, he’s been a force at the plate, racking up ten hard hits in just five games. That’s an astounding 83.3% hard-hit rate, showcasing his exceptional power and bat control. While he’s only managed one home run during that stretch, it’s not a cause for concern. Alvarez’s incredible barrel rate of 41.7%, fly ball rate of 66.7%, average exit velocity of 104.4MPH, and launch angle of 27.2 degrees paint a clear picture: he’s hitting the ball with incredible force and consistently launching it high into the air. Based on these numbers alone, he’s due for a home run binge, and today’s matchup against Athletics pitcher JP Sears could be the perfect opportunity.
Sears, a left-handed pitcher, might seem like a slight disadvantage for Alvarez, who traditionally excels against right-handers. However, the difference in his stats against lefties and righties isn’t drastic enough to deter us. In fact, you could even argue that Alvarez has been performing better against lefties this year. Against right-handed pitching, Alvarez boasts a .275 average, .525 slugging percentage, .898 OPS, .250 ISO rate, and .378 wOBA. Against left-handed pitching, those numbers jump to .361 average, .598 slugging percentage, 1.019 OPS, .238 ISO rate, and .430 wOBA. The only stat that favors right-handed pitching is the ISO rate, which, while important for power, is still a respectable .238 against lefties, placing him in the “great” category according to FanGraphs. Meanwhile, Sears has been struggling against hitters, allowing the fifth-worst barrel rate in the MLB at 10.2%, the 18th-highest hard hit rate at 40.5%, the 16th-highest launch angle of 17.1 degrees, and the 19th-fastest average exit velocity. These numbers suggest that Sears is susceptible to hard contact and allowing batters to launch the ball into the air. With Alvarez’s current hot streak and Sears’ struggles against power hitters, this matchup looks incredibly favorable for our slugger to add to his home run count.
Play 2: Rafael Devers to Hit a Home Run (+350) Fanatics
Next up, we have Rafael Devers of the Boston Red Sox, who is set to face the Colorado Rockies at 3:10 p.m. ET. Devers, another lefty hitter, has been on an absolute roll, and while he hasn’t yet hit a home run since the All-Star break, his impressive stats suggest that it’s only a matter of time. Devers has nine hard hits in the five games since the ASB, matching his teammate Tyler O’Neill, and even boasts a faster average exit velocity. However, O’Neill has four home runs while Devers has none, primarily due to his launch angle. Devers hasn’t quite managed to get under the ball as successfully as O’Neill, but if we widen our scope to the last 30 days, Devers has emerged as one of the league’s most formidable hitters.
Over the past month, Devers has launched nine home runs, ranking second in hard hits behind only Bobby Witt Jr. He’s achieved this feat with a surprisingly low fly-ball rate of 29%. Devers isn’t traditionally known for his high fly-ball rate, with a season average of 37.4%, but his recent performance suggests an improvement in his ability to launch the ball. Despite his low fly-ball rate, he’s still managed to hit those nine home runs. Overall, Devers has the third-best ISO rate in the MLB at .291 and a barrel rate of 14.6%, ranking 16th in the league. He’s facing a right-handed pitcher tonight in Cal Quantrill, and Devers thrives against righties. His ISO rate skyrockets from .144 against LHP to a monstrous .380 against RHP, which would be the highest ISO rate in the MLB, surpassing even Aaron Judge. While Quantrill, despite pitching at the hitter-friendly Coors Field, doesn’t have terrible numbers, his hard hit rate jumps from 29.5% against right-handed hitters to 40.7% against left-handed hitters, making it the worst hard hit rate allowed in the MLB. With Devers’ power and Quantrill’s struggles against lefties, this matchup presents a prime opportunity for Devers to add to his home run count.
Play 3: Teoscar Hernandez to Hit a Home Run (+440) Caesars
Finally, we have Teoscar Hernandez of the San Francisco Giants, facing off against the Los Angeles Dodgers at 10:10 p.m. ET. If you’ve noticed a trend with our picks, you’re right. Hernandez joins Alvarez and Devers in a trio of hitters who have been absolutely crushing the ball since the All-Star break. While he didn’t have a stellar performance yesterday, Hernandez had a combined nine hard hits in the first four games back, with a 20% barrel rate during that stretch. He’s already hit two home runs, so this pick isn’t based on the idea that he’s due for a home run binge, but rather on his current hot hand and a favorable matchup.
Hernandez has been having a solid year overall, with an ISO rate of .222 and a barrel rate of 14.9%, placing him in the “great” category for both metrics. The key to backing Hernandez tonight lies in his matchup against a left-handed pitcher. Hernandez enjoys a significant advantage against lefties, with his ISO rate soaring from .187 against right-handed pitching to .323 against left-handed pitching. His fly ball rate, pull rate, and hard hit rate are all higher against left-handed pitching. He’s facing Robbie Ray of the Giants, who’s making his first start of the season after recovering from Tommy John surgery. It’s unlikely that Ray will pitch deep into the game, and the Giants’ bullpen can be exploited. The Giants have allowed the sixth-most home runs in the MLB and have the sixth-worst ERA. Considering Hernandez’s hot streak and the Giants’ bullpen’s vulnerability, he’s in a prime position to keep his hitting momentum going.
Remember, these are just our picks for Wednesday’s MLB player props. It’s always wise to do your own research and consider the factors that influence your betting decisions. Enjoy the games, and good luck!
