Tour de France 2019 - Powerranking: Who will win the Tour?
Before talking about the top favorites for this year's Tour de France, first of all you have to talk about the names that will not be used in the 106th Tour de France. For both the four-time Tour winner and last year's third Chris Froome (Ineos) and last year's second Tom Dumoulin (Sunweb) are injured.
At first glance, it makes the race for the overall victory in France more open. But even without Froome the team Ineos (formerly Sky) has the top two favorites in their own ranks. The team could thus bring the seventh victory in the past eight years.
SPIEGEL ONLINE expert Eike Hagen Hoppmann has evaluated and sorted the presumed best riders before the start of the tour. Included in the rating are the past season performances, the performance at the Tour de France in recent years, the strength of the team and how well the track suits the skills of the drivers.
A trio as a victim of double burden
Vincenzo Nibali (Bahrain Merida), Mikel Landa (Movistar) and Simon Yates (Mitchelton-Scott) are not in the top ten. Normally, the trio is among the best in the world. All three drove in May already the Giro d'Italia. The experience of recent years shows that the load with two large round trips is large within a few weeks. Other riders, who have focused only on the Tour of France in preparation, should be fresher to the start. However, you can not copy the three. You could possibly go for a podium finish. But it is also possible that they give away the overall standings early and instead focus on stage victories or the mountain jersey.
Emanuel Buchmann (Bora-hansgrohe) did not make it into the top ten riders. Although the 26-year-old drives a strong season and landed in the Tour dress rehearsal Dauphine in third place. But in the big three-week round trips, he has not been able to keep his form as consistent at a high level as he has done in a one-week race.
Here's the rankings from tenth to number one:
Place ten: Nairo Quintana (Movistar) Six years ago, it was agreed that Nairo Quintana would win the Tour de France once in the coming years. At least. Since he had finished the Tour de France at its first ever ever directly in second place. Now, in 2019, Quintana is 29 and still has not won the tour. In 2015 and 2016, he still landed on the podium - in the past two years, however, the trend was clearly down (twelfth and tenth). Also this year Quintana is not in top form. The Dauphine Tour he finished only in ninth.
Ninth place: Richie Porte (Trek-Segafredo) The career of Richie Porte is so far unfinished. From the potential he could have won a Grand Tour. But it has not come to that yet. This is also because Porte is reliably involved in falls. Like last year, when Porte went to France with great ambitions. At the cobblestones stage around Roubaix, he crashed and had to give up the tour. By now he is 34 years old, he does not have much time for the big triumph. Maybe 2019 will be his last chance. His new team, Trek-Segafredo, guarantees him full support - and even leaves John Degenkolb at home.
Eighth place: Romain Bardet (AG2R La Mondiale) Romain Bardet can not complain about the lack of support from the tour organizers. France's hopes of a home victory at the Tour once again find a course that fits well with his abilities. Say: There are only a few individual time kilometers. Nevertheless, Bardet is not one of the top favorites this year. His performance with the Dauphine, which he finished only in tenth, was at best average. But maybe that also speaks for a slow, purposeful shape building to the climax of the year. At the optimum, the runner-up of 2016 was not yet this year.
Seventh place: Rigoberto Uran (EF Education First) Some question marks are behind Rigoberto Uran. The overall second of 2017 had to give up the race early last year and has driven only a few race kilometers in this season because of various injuries. "My season is starting now," says Uran. "Now I feel fresh and my condition is good." Should this self-assessment correspond to reality, uranium is to be expected. His biggest advantage is probably that he has two strong helpers Michael Woods and Tejay van Garderen at his side.
Sixth place: Thibaut Pinot (Groupama-FDJ) Thibaut Pinot can be satisfied with the season so far. With two fifth places at the Dauphine Tour and Tirreno-Adriatico, the Frenchman has positioned himself in the top group. With Romain Bardet he is likely to fight in the overall standings for the place as the best Frenchman. A podium finish would be a success for Pinot. In 2014 he was already third in the Tour de France. This is still his best finish on a Grand Tour.
5th place: Steven Kruijswijk (Team Jumbo-Visma) The fifth of the previous year could once again achieve a similar ranking this year. Especially since the second (Dumoulin), third (Froome) and fourth place (teammate Primoz Roglic) from 2018 this year will not go to the start. If you go after that, Kruijswijk could end up on the podium. The 32-year-old has never succeeded in his career in a Grand Tour. It remains to be seen how many helpers Kruijswijk has in the mountains, as Jumbo-Visma has aligned part of the team to Sprinter Dylan Groenewegen.
Fourth place: Adam Yates (Mitchelton-Scott) Only one illness and the ensuing task prevented a podium finish by Yates at the Dauphine Tour. The Briton drives a strong season (including second place in Tirreno-Adriatico) and has thus brought up for the tour as a co-favorite in the conversation. His best overall ranking is so far a fourth place in 2016. In this area, Yates could now re-enter. It could also be decisive how well twin brother Simon can support him in the high mountains.
Third place: Jakob Fuglsang (Astana) He is the best driver of the current season: Jakob Fuglsang has already won the Dauphine Tour, Liège-Bastogne-Liège and the Tour of Andalusia this year. Second place at Strade Bianche and La Fleche Wallone as well as a third place at the Amstel Gold Race complete the strong performances. No other driver has similar results this year. Fuglsang could become the challenger of the Ineos drivers and can rely on strong helpers in his team Astana. Against Fuglsang speaks that he could not convince in his career in the big three-week country tours (seventh place in the Tour 2013 as the best placement) and that he could have reached the peak of the form curve earlier this year.
Second place: Egan Bernal (Ineos) No other seasoned rider has made such a leap forward in the rating in recent weeks as Egan Bernal. The injury-related loss of Chris Froome and Bernal's win at the Tour de Suisse have made some observers even see him as the top favorite of this year's tour. That may be true. But his victory at the Tour de Suisse should not have changed much in his status. The competition was mainly at Dauphine at the start. The victory in Switzerland therefore has only limited significance. One thing is for sure: he has weathered the consequences of a training crash that cost Bernal the planned participation in the Giro d'Italia. And already at the tour last year, Bernal was at least equal to helping Froome and Thomas in the mountains. The 22-year-old could land at the top this year.
First place: Geraint Thomas (Ineos) Before the tour Bernal is still behind his teammate Geraint Thomas. Officially Ineos goes with a double tip in the tour. If and then who is the number one, will first show on the streets of France. As reigning winner, Thomas still has a bonus. Although one must say: The preparation for the tour was not optimal with a crash at the Tour de Suisse and the subsequent abandonment of the race. Nevertheless: Thomas is next to Nibali, the only driver in the field, who has won the tour ever. This experience alone could make the difference in the end. In any case, even without Froome Ineos has strong drivers in the ranks - a double victory seems possible.